Stocks.

Signal report cards

How each signal has actually scored

Every signal in the stack — Lazy Prices, the QMV composite, insider cluster buys, short-interest crowding, transcript sentiment — emits a flag when conviction crosses a documented threshold. We collect those flags, build an equal-weighted basket, and measure how the basket performed at +30, +60, and +90 days against SPY. Signals that trail their benchmark are listed alongside the ones that beat it. That is the point.

Demo data: one or more cards below were rendered from fixtures because no live track record has been computed yet in this environment. The shape is real; the numbers are not. Once the recompute cron has run against real flags, the demo-data tag disappears.
Signal track recordDemo data

QMV Composite

Quality / Momentum / Value composite read from fundamentals — high ROE and margins, fair multiples, durable revenue growth.

Flagged YTD
18
ticker-events
+60d basket
7.3%
vs SPY 4.8%
Alpha
+2.5%
n=16
Signal track recordDemo data

Lazy Prices (10-K text change)

Cohen-Malloe-Nguyen (2020) — companies that materially rewrite Risk Factors or MD&A in their 10-K subsequently underperform.

Flagged YTD
14
ticker-events
+60d basket
-3.0%
vs SPY 4.8%
Alpha
-7.8%
n=12
Signal track recordDemo data

Insider cluster buys

Multiple corporate insiders buying their own stock on the open market within a tight window — historically a bullish opportunism signal.

Flagged YTD
9
ticker-events
+60d basket
9.4%
vs SPY 4.8%
Alpha
+4.6%
n=8
Signal track recordDemo data

Short-interest crowding

Heavy short interest combined with rising borrow cost and high utilisation — historically a bearish crowding signal.

Flagged YTD
11
ticker-events
+60d basket
3.1%
vs SPY 4.8%
Alpha
-1.7%
n=10
Signal track recordDemo data

Earnings-call tone

Tone and guidance posture extracted from the latest earnings-call transcript — constructive versus cautious framing.

Flagged YTD
16
ticker-events
+60d basket
5.2%
vs SPY 4.8%
Alpha
+0.4%
n=14

Methodology — one paragraph

Each signal in src/lib/signals/ emits a score between −1 and +1 for any ticker that runs through the pipeline. A signal counts a ticker as flagged when its score crosses a polarity-aware threshold documented on the signal's detail page. The basket is equal-weighted, simple arithmetic returns, no factor adjustment. Sample sizes are shown on every row — small N is small N, and a thin horizon is not a result.

Outputs are informational only and should not be considered individualized investment advice. Stocks is a financial publisher, not an investment adviser or broker-dealer. It does not provide personalized recommendations and does not know your holdings.

Full methodology